Clinical Research Directory

Validation of Heart Failure Risk Scores MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM in Egyptian Patients

Sponsor: Assiut University

Summary

Heart failure (HF) affects over 64 million people worldwide and carries high morbidity, frequent hospitalizations, and major economic burden. Accurate risk stratification is essential to guide therapy, follow-up, and advanced care decisions. Several prognostic models have been developed: MAGGIC: based on \>39,000 patients, predicts mortality from simple clinical variables. GWTG-HF: derived from \>30,000 patients, predicts in-hospital mortality using admission data. SHFM: estimates 1-3 year survival, incorporating clinical, lab, and treatment factors. These models, developed mainly in Western cohorts, may not perform well in Arab populations, where HF patients are younger, with more ischemic disease, diabetes, CKD, and limited access to advanced therapies. Such differences risk score miscalibration. External validation and recalibration are needed to assess predictive accuracy and adjust models for local populations. A head-to-head comparison of MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM has never been done in Egypt; such a study would identify the most reliable model for predicting 1-year mortality and 30-day readmission in Egyptian HF patients.

Official title: External Validation and Recalibration of Heart Failure Risk Models (MAGGIC, GWTG-HF, and SHFM) in Egyptian Patients

Key Details

Conditions