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Development of a Dynamic Prediction Model for Crohn's Disease-Related Intestinal Surgery Using Longitudinal Indices of Routine Blood Tests: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study
Sponsor: Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
Summary
This single-center retrospective cohort study aims to develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model that uses longitudinal data from routinely collected blood tests to continuously assess the risk of Crohn's disease (CD)-related intestinal surgery, and to construct a simplified tool for clinical application. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CD and serial routine blood tests available during long-term follow-up will be included. Longitudinal trajectories of laboratory markers will be characterized, and their association with CD-related intestinal surgery will be evaluated. A full-variable dynamic prediction model will be built using dynamic random survival forest methodology, and a parsimonious model incorporating only the core laboratory markers will be developed via Bayesian joint model. The goal is to establish a practical, non-invasive, and dynamic risk assessment framework to support the transition from reactive to proactive long-term management of CD.
Official title: Integration of Subphenotypic Lesions, Imaging-Based Healing Outcomes, and Biomarker Trajectories in a Retrospective Analysis of a Single-Center Retrospective Crohn's Disease Cohort
Key Details
Gender
All
Age Range
Any - Any
Study Type
OBSERVATIONAL
Enrollment
500
Start Date
2010-01-01
Completion Date
2026-01-01
Last Updated
2026-06-12
Healthy Volunteers
No