Clinical Research Directory

Development and Internal Validation of a Multimodal Prediction Score for Early Hemodynamic Deterioration in Adult Polytrauma Patients

Severe traumatic injury involving multiple body regions (polytrauma) carries a high risk of rapid bleeding, tissue hypoperfusion, and circulatory collapse. In the emergency setting, standard vital signs such as blood pressure and heart rate alone may not detect impending circulatory failure until significant deterioration has already occurred. The purpose of this prospective observational cohort study is to develop and internally validate a bedside clinical prediction model that identifies adult polytrauma patients at risk of early hemodynamic deterioration within 24 hours of arrival at the Emergency Department of Assiut University Hospital. Eligible adult patients presenting with acute trauma across at least two major body regions within 6 hours of injury will receive standard clinical evaluation and trauma resuscitation. Alongside routine care, researchers will record baseline predictor variables during initial evaluation, including: * Shock Index, calculated from heart rate and systolic blood pressure. * Inferior vena cava (IVC) respiratory collapsibility assessed via non-invasive bedside point-of-care ultrasound. * Initial blood gas and biochemical markers, including blood lactate concentration and base deficit. * Baseline neurological status using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and patient age. Participants will be followed for 24 hours to monitor for hemodynamic deterioration, defined as persistent or recurrent hypotension, the need for vasopressor or inotropic medications, major blood transfusion (at least 4 units of packed red blood cells), emergency surgical or interventional procedures to control bleeding, or trauma-related circulatory collapse death. The gathered data will be analyzed according to TRIPOD guidelines to create a multimodal risk tool that can assist emergency clinicians in recognizing high-risk trauma patients early.